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Listen to the optimists, and the AI-driven economic boom is at the doorstep. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects AI will add 1.5% to GDP and productivity over the next decade. Goldman Sachs says it could add up to three percentage points to productivity every year. By the mid-2030s, AI might increase work output by 20%, according to Vanguard.
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Turbulence doesn’t have to be a matter of word-of-mouth. Commercial jets have the capacity to measure and transmit it automatically—using the software Cornman developed at NCAR in the early nineties—and have it relayed to other pilots. The software is freely available to airlines, but most of them balk at the cost of sending and processing the data, and sharing it with others. “It’s not much, but it adds up,” Sharman told me. “A lot of them are saying, ‘Wait a second, we’re barely making it. We can’t afford another hundred thousand on transmission!’ While the ones that are willing to pay for it say, ‘Why should I share my data with somebody else who doesn’t?” So far, only around two thousand planes have been equipped with the software—about one in four planes in the American fleet.